1997’s Hot Industries: Pass the Chips

Ask economists, technology pundits and futurists to name a short list of industrial superstars for the coming years. Site Selection did, and it seems chips invariably float to the top of the pool. Computers, with a projected annual growth rate of 7.3 percent, dominate the highest-growth sectors for the near term. In fact, computer manufacturing is expected to account for 13 percent of all durable goods produced over the next 10 years.

Computers aside, what else will be hot in the coming years? Strongest among the durable manufacturing groups will be industrial machinery and equipment (3.9 percent average annual growth), electronic and other electric equipment (3.5 percent) and instruments and related products (2.9 percent). High-Tech Superstars

In addition to computers, high-tech superstars likely will include medical equipment and instruments, electrical components (including semiconductor chips) and accessories, communications equipment, consumer ophthalmic goods and drugs. Other high-growth industries: miscellaneous printing, miscellaneous plastics and railroad equipment.

While aerospace is expected to run real annual growth at 2.2 percent during the next decade, the U.S. motor vehicle industry likely will lag at just 1.6 percent.

Among nondurable industries, the fastest-growing are projected to include paper and allied products, printing and publishing, chemical and allied products and rubber and miscellaneous plastic products. To maintain fast growth, industries will need to be major exporters of their products and services, say analysts. Strong export growth likely will benefit medical equipment, motor vehicles, automotive parts, paper products, computer equipment, computer software and information services.

Information technology likely will continue to be a heavy hitter, with double-digit growth expected from satellite commerce, data processing, electronic information services and pre-recorded music, followed closely by computer professional services, cable television and telecommunications services.